teisipäev, juuli 06, 2004


Just a quick thought on Edwards as VP. There are a number of good things about this. First, the obvious contrast with Vice President Fuck Yourself. Second, Edwards communicates a populist message better and more believably than Kerry does. Third, he does have a Southern accent and that sadly does matter. His primary downside is his lack of experience, but he's a hell of a lot more experienced than George W. Bush was in 2000 so I can't really see how that shot will stick. As long as he doesn't make any more mistakes like misunderstanding DOMA in one of the primary debates, he'll be okay. He has about three months to learn more about foreign policy before his debate with Cheney. He's a lawyer, but anyone with strong anti-lawyer feelings is probably already voting for Bush. Or they support Kerry enough that his VP choice won't change their minds.

Now, with regard to the question of whether any of this really matters, a few things. I agree that historically VPs haven't had much effect on elections. I think this year will be different, though. One reason is the extreme prominence of Cheney as a negative figure in the Bush campaign. He calls attention to himself, which will in turn call attention to Edwards. Also, Edwards really does outshine Kerry in the charisma department. I see this as an asset for Kerry, though, because anyone who likes Edwards is going to vote for Kerry. They don't have another choice. Putting them together at joint appearances should allow some of Edwards' charm to brush off on Kerry. They're two heads of the same beast is what I'm saying. Edwards is an unusually compelling figure and Kerry is unusually not compelling, so I do think he will provide a significant boost to the team.

Note how the Bush campaign is making ridiculous predictions of being 15 points behind after the next few weeks. Setting artificially low expectations is never a sign of strength.

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?